Lots of Ink: A new estimate cuts in half the sea level rise for a collapse of West Antarctic ice
Friday, May 15th, 2009
Here’s sort of good news: Maybe most of Florida, and maybe even a lot of Bangladesh and other low lying areas, will stay above the waves should West Antarctica’s ice sheet collapse. A new estimate in Science Magazine, revising downward the amount of ice that might plausibly run into the sea, estimates an increase of a bit more than three meters, some ten or 11 feet, should the region’s glaciers radically speed up, melt, and otherwise go to pot while ocean waters infiltrate their footings. The study also confirms what many researchers have been saying – a wide collapse of the region’s ice would take many centuries, making it hardly a leading reason to confront global warming. The changed estimate arises in part from conclustion that, while much of the ice is grounded upon continental shelf bedrock below sea level and might plausibly go, its loss would not necessarily bring down the vast glaciers atop adjacent areas that stand above the sea.
Of some interest is the University of Bristol and Univ. of Colorado team’s estimate of the Earth’s response to less mass piled up in Antarctica. Its changed shape, rotation, and distribution of mass – and hence local gravity microvariations – would, they say, in some places enhance whatever sea level rise does occur. That includes along the coasts of North America.
Most outlets treat the topic rather, and appropriately, as an academic study. Interesting but no game changer. If warming continues, sea level is a problem no matter what. Not everybody takes that stance. In the ever-reliable Sun in the UK, a place where mere exaggeration and red-light alarm is as sober as it gets, the story runs under “Ice threat to United States.” It’s just four paragraphs, but all one needs read is the first line: “Washington DC and San Francisco could be washed away…” Fun. But entirely misses the point. Google news has recently enhanced the way it present results, breaking them down into categories by region, blog v. news outlet, etc. That’s good. Maybe it should add one bin helpfully labeled “Rollicking Tabloids.”
Other, straighter-shooting stories:
- Time Magazine – Jeffrey Kluger: Sea Level Rise Overestimated, But Things Still Grim; The story if fine. The hed misleads. Overall, the IPCC’s official projections are still likely on the low side, and an Antarctic ice sheet collapse has seldom been presented as among the more likely causes of sea level change this century.
- Telegraph (UK) – Louise Gray: West Antarctic ice sheet collapse ‘exaggerated’, scientists say ;
- AFP – Sea rise from Antarctic ice melt overestimated: study ; Still devastating, it says here.
- Independent – Steve Connor: Melting ice could cause gravity shift ; The world’s figure is his angle. Good choice.
- Christian Science Monitor – Moises Velasquez-Manoff: New study: Less sea rise expected from possible Antarctic melt ; Read this for a breakdown on the individual factors that led to the new estimate’s revisions.
- Reuters – Alister Doyle : West Antarctic ice threat revised down; still dire ;
- NYTimes – Andrew C. Revkin: Study Halves Prediction of Rising Seas ; Same hed problem as with the Time Magazine story. The halving applies to just one, not particularly urgent potential cause of overall sea level change.
Grist for the Mill:
Bristol University Press Release ; Univ. Colorado Press Release ;
-CP