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Rivers of black goo (ink, not crude): Obama to open Arctic, east coast offshore to oil and gas rigs

Big splash of news today over the White House decision to ease US dependence on imported fossil fuels by, um, drilling, baby, drilling. And not just anywhere but via offshore oil and gas development – a topic that sends many environmental activist organizations and their members into conniptions.

Eventually we’ll get some smart reporting on this. Topics include the history of accidents and the long term damage to shorelines and marine ecoystems they leave behind, the possibilities of finding enough to matter, the possibility that big finds will, in the long run, boost carbon emissions even while easing imported gas and oil demand, and the subtle political calculus of this unexpected move.

Being of occasionally devious mind, The Tracker suspects that President Obama and his advisers are pulling a political fast one and it has little to do with expectation of (safely controlled) gushers off shore. It goes like this – first figure that, just as most big-picture analyses suggest, there’s not enough oil and gas offshore of the US, even in Alaska or along the southern Atlantic seaboard, to make much difference to ultimate CO2 levels or to American energy independence. Second, let the drillers explore anyway to show that the current administration, as with nuclear power, is closing off no options and making it more palatable to a bigger spectrum of the public and of members of the US Chamber of Commerce. Third, this is easy cash, better than raising taxes: those leases put money into federal coffers. It won’t balance the budget, but it can’t hurt. Fourth, if they do find oodles of oil and gas it will take decades to start production and it won’t be cheap to extract out there, helping renewables to compete. Fifth: There is always the carbon tax third rail to grab.

Those are some of the angles I’d check out, were I told to check this out at all.

A few stories already out there:

This news sits crossways on the usual political and technological divisions in the US. Reporters will need to stop and think hard about how to go at it – falling back on the usual tropes and bromides will not do. This will be fun to watch.

- Charlie Petit

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