Was the H1N1 pandemic surprisingly mild? Or did it have a big impact that few recognize?
Wednesday, April 14th, 2010
The statistics of flu epidemics and pandemics are notoriously difficult to sort out. And despite the often-repeated boilerplate that seasonal flu kills 36,000 Americans each year, nobody really knows how many deaths should be attributed to the bug. It is known that the actual death toll fluctuates widely from year to year.
But that didn’t stop Don Sapatkin, of the Philadelphia Inquirer, from wading in with a 1,300-word story to the effect that the H1N1 virus actually saved lives during the last flu season. His second graf says that last winter “fewer Americans appear to have died of influenza-related causes than in any recent flu season.”
Sapatkin goes further, writing that we had “a winter flu season with virtually no seasonal flu, no pandemic flu, no flu of any kind, at least not yet.” He quotes an infectious disease specialist as saying, “It is very eerie.”
The story goes on to suggest that H1N1 kept seasonal flu strains at bay through a kind of ecological competition for niches in people’s respiratory tracts and that H1N1′s symptoms were mild in most people, not fatal.
It’s a fascinating hypothesis, approached gamely. Sapatkin isn’t the first mainstream journalist to write about this, but he produced the longest analysis the Tracker could find, though it still wasn’t a comprehensive report.
CDC is still saying that although the curve bottomed out months ago, we are not out of the woods, that cases are still being reported in the U.S. The bar charts above, from the CDC, show reported cases above and deaths below by week, August at the left and April at the right. During winter, the death toll approached 200 a week. The original graph and many others are here.
Moreover a team of researchers at NIH and other institutions insists that H1N1 had a bigger-than-perceived impact because so many of those it killed were young and had more years to lose.
AFP, in an unbylined story, reports that WHO denies its H1N1 alarms were influenced by vaccine makers eyeing profits.
-Boyce Rensberger