UPDATED* / Lots of Ink: Polar bear habitat will shrink, but not disappear…with a very large IF.
In Nature this week a one-two punch of Arctic science and commentary led a lot of reporters to bring news that polar bears and several other inhabitants of their customary ecoystems are in trouble but not doomed by inevitable climate change – but that intermixing of species as their ranges overlap may erode a few genetic distinctions away. Grizzly bears and polar bears in particular, and has been reported in the scientific literature and general media for several years, are the lead examples of the latter, possible scenario. The first set of forecasts are in a multi-author research paper, the second in a commentary by two scientists in Alaska and a third in Massachusetts.
One has to ask whether the good chance that polar bears could persist in the wild, if greenhouse gas mitigation occurs on a large scale, is news. After all the assumption behind the unofficial rise of polar bears as global warming’s iconic endangered species is already that, if humanity manages to stop putting so much extra CO2 and methane and other such things in the air, enough of the bears’ icy habitat will remain to prevent extinction. So we need to act fast. So why is it news that a team of US scientists argue in Nature that very thing: tame the greenhouse = (probably) save the polar bear?
The news is, I’d offer, not that the supposition is new, but that the detailed calculations showing considerable ability of suitable pack ice to persist in some regions of the arctic, maintaining such prey species as ring seals, makes the existing hypothesis more robust. That, and the authors don’t see any pending “tipping points” in seasonal sea ice coverage that would doom the entire habitability zone for polar bears to disappear. Thus the story would seem not so much to be that they could squeak through the next century’s transitions if things go well, but where and in about what numbers. Plus, if it all depends on emissions cuts, and given the recent slump in international diplomatic work toward that end, where’s the reason for hope?
Such subtlety eludes the headline writers on some writeups. More stories ought to come along on the topic – at the American Geophysical Union meeting today in San Francisco another press conference (beyond a teleconference two days ago) will fill the ears of scores of reporters.
Plus, one would think more outlets would have tried to find out exactly where the last redoubts of the polar bear might be. Top of Greenland, out in the Canadian archipelago, both, where? Are the white bears of the Bering Strait region and Hudson Bay doomed no matter what…?
Stories:
- Edmonton Journal – Ed Struzik: ‘Message of hope’ for polar bears’ survival / Greenhouse gas reductions still needed ; One plainly put piece of news here: one of the authors says flatly to forget hopes that polar bears can adapt to life on land should sea ice, with lots of fat seals on it and in range of swimming bears, go away.
- Post Media News / Vancouver Sun: Margaret Munro: Still time to save polar bears ; Powerful vignette lede on two skinny polar bear cubs that one of the study’s authors found recently, starved to death on the fringes of the animals’ present range. The researcher says, however, optimism depends on one’s optimism that the requisite changes in emissions will occur.
- Independent (UK) Steve Connor: Arctic’s vanishing sea ice presents polar bear with a new danger – grizzlies ;
- Christian Science Monitor – Pete Spotts: Polar bear ‘doomed’? Only if greenhouse-gas emissions aren’t cut ;
- Science News via Wired – Alexandra Witze: It May Not Be Too Late for Polar Bears ;
- E&E Greenwire via NYTimes – Paul Voosen: No ‘Tipping Point’ for Sea Ice in Polar Bears’ Future ; This hed gets closer to the fresh conclusions in the paper on sea ice, polar bears, and the creatures they eat.
- NatureNews – Nicola Jones: Polar bears could survive on persisting ice ; .
- .. could do more, but gotta run over to SF for the AGU meeting and a panel I’m on.
*UPDATE: I didn’t know it, but the AGU meeting included a press conference on this polar bear story. Among those listening was the world’s foremost journalist climate blogger:
- NYTimes / DotEarth – Andrew C. Revkin: Pondering a Polar Predator in Retreat ; Not for the faint of heart is the video of two starving young polar bears to which Andy links. This is not a normal news and commentary blog post, but a meditation on life, death, and responsibility on Earth, 2010.
Grist for the Mill: U. Washington Press Release ;
- Charlie Petit
