TechWorld: A lesson for reporters. Stop and think that amazing stat through, twice or thrice.
A neighbor, a numbers-savvy fellow who reads this site regularly and perhaps merely to humor HIS neighbor, tips us off to a serious story in an on line trade pub that got off course. Blame that malady best known as the brain cramp, numeracy division, and it struck an experienced reporter. I’ll leave the name off for the sake of googleness, even though it’s right there on the story. That is, we’re not singling anybody out for character flaw or habitual carelessness. Rather, the goal is to remind all reporters (and readers) to be on the alert for things that seem sensible, sort of, are certainly remarkable, and to keep in mind that they just might be plainly wrong.
And boy if I’m the one wrong about this, I’m in deep trouble.
- TechWorld / PC World : Space junk to fall – but don’t panic, says NASA.
Did you read it? Do you see what I’m talking about? Ok, it’s an odds error. Here it is. The story, short and written in a light tone, clearly says that NASA puts at one chance in 3,200 that a person will be hit with debris from a specific satellite. It is in a low orbit that is due to decay itself right into the atmosphere in the next few days. The story then says the odds are one in 280,000 that one will be hit by lightning. So it concludes that chances of being hit by this satellite’s debris are higher than being hit by lightning. (I checked around, odds for lightning during ones lifetime are given across a broad range, but this number is in it).
Maybe it is just the phrasing that I don’t get, and the reporter knows full well what those numbers mean. I dunno. But taken at face value, the 1/3,200 odds for this satellite’s remnant hitting a person pertain to its affecting just one person out of the 6 billion or so on Earth. So, per person – ie to get the risk to YOU – divide it by 6 X 109 . That makes the 1/280,000 chance of lightning hitting specifically you a lot higher, not lower, than your being clonked by a chip off this defunct Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite.
Here’s one that gets it right:
- Space.com – Natalie Wolchover: What Are the Odds You’ll Get Struck by NASA’s Falling Satellite? ;
- Charlie Petit
September 21st, 2011 at 2:16 pm
Well said. And of course, the odds that SOMEONE will be hit by lightning are much higher. It happens dozens of times every year.
September 22nd, 2011 at 1:13 pm
Thanks Tom. By the way, and to fill readers in on the Update to the neighboring post on asteroid and cretaceous ending impact stories, I’d intended to put a link to Avril’s turtle fossil story in the asteroid post in the first place but ran out of time yesterday. This comment from him, on this post, reminded me to go back and do it.