Lots of Ink: NASA says near-Earth asteroids not quite so common? Or even rarer. Can we say whew?
Whew?
Long-shot chances of catastrophe are a slippery topic in news. Catastrophe gets people’s attention. Longshots do not, so much, unless it’s a lottery and you can convince people to pay you zillions of dollars to let them take a shot at misery (We hardly ever read abut people, years after a big jackpot, who are happily livin’ like Riley).One can run stories every day in earthquake country with good advice, and some people still won’t bolt their bookshelves and armoires and grandfather clocks to the wall. An asteroid?
Yesterday NASA revealed results of a telescopic survey of the inner solar system, looking for asteroids with orbits that, with minor perturbation, could lead to an impact on Earth. It trumpeted the press conference in advance. Many turned out or logged on. The news is that earlier, statistical projections suggested the number of them big enough to pose major peril were too high. Very few giant miles-wide, civilization-ending asteroids are there, we already knew that, and the number remains around 1000. But the middle sized ones in the 300 to 3300 feet range (makes more sense metrically – about 100 meters to 1 kilometer) come in at 19,500. Wow, roughly 20,000 rocks big enough to take out a city center, or maybe even devastate a whole province, quietly circling the sun, just a nudge away from hitting you on the head. But, that’s down from the previously projected 35,000 of them. The new number is by actual count, made possible by an orbiting NASA platform called the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, or WISE, that despite being nearly dry on coolant and ready for retirement, was kept soldiering on to finish the asteroid canvass.
In a media world that tends to seek neat categories such as good vs. bad, relax or buckle-up, spend or save, Godzilla or King Kong, buy or sell, fight or flight, and left or right, this one gave a few headline writers as well as reporters a tough time. A few. Most rolled with it.
Stories:
- PC Magazine – Chloe Albanesius: Will Earth Be Struck By Massive Asteroid? Probably Not ; I listed this one first, as it got what’s left of my molars grinding the worst. Ms. Ablanesius writes the story ably, covering the basics and getting the right quote from a mission scientist: “…fewer does not mean none and there are still tens of thousands out there that we need to find.” It’s the headline and it uselessness that rankles. One supposes the editor who put it up figured that for most people, eternity is their own lifetimes and that’s what matters. But it was already true that one will probably not hit Earth before everybody alive now is gone. But surely nobody sensibly thinks that, after umpty hundreds of impacts since the Earth stopped forming, they have stopped. None forever, not in a billion years?!Thus, other than leaning in the correct direction, toward be less worried, this headline is, um, dumb.
- Voice of America – Suzanne Preso: NASA’s Asteroid Hunter Finds Fewere ‘Planet-Buster’ Asteroids Than Predicted ; Sober enough, except that the category found to be significantly smaller is not the planet-busters several or many km across, but the local busters less than a km-wide that are rarer. The hed is weak, but the body text is willing. Preso even tackles the physics – reflected light versus glow – behind using infrared to look for asteroids.
- AP – Alicia Chang: NASA IDs 90 pct. of largest near-Earth asteroids: No complaints from here about this one.
- MSNBC Cosmic Log – Alan Boyle : Astronomers downsize their estimate for risky asteroids ;
- LiveScience – Denise Chow: Earth Surrounded by Fewer Potentially Dangerous Asteroids Than Thought, NASA Finds ;
Grist for the Mill: NASA Press Release ;
