BBC: A glimpse at IPCC’s upcoming report on weather extremes. We’ll get more of them soonish.. Not so sure, but pretty sure, they’re already here.
Tuesday, November 15th, 2011
A tip of the hat to Andrew C. Revkin, at the NYTimes blg Dot Earth, for calling attention to a remarkable piece, an appreciation that I’d like to second.
At the BBC its environmental reporter Richard Black has posted up a sterling example how to report, with punch, a big sack of probably and maybe. He has his hands on the draft of an upcoming report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It tackles the slippery topic of weather extremes, and the evidence that storms and droughts and such things as that have gotten worse due to the slow rise in global temperatures and the accompanying changed dynamics of storm tracks, humidity, and atmospheric turbulence.
One must read it right through to get its full meaning. Black starts off by sampling all the hedging the IPCC authors are sharing with one another over the certainty that humankind along with the rest of the biosphere is getting socked harder with deadly weather than it used to. His focus is on so-called climate vulnerable countries – places that sea level rise or other such changes will hit first and hardest. But the piece also reads a bit like ammo for the contrarians, including those who see nothing but lefty anti-business one worldism, hiding behind a smokesceen of bad science, in policies that would forcibly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. One can sensibly believe, one infers from this story, but also not for sure know that anthropogenic climate change is responsible for today’s droughts and killer cyclones.
But that’s just a set-up for the more dire opinion among IPCC’s expert corps. Which is, it says here, that however scrawled and hard to make out the signature of climate change is on today’s weather, chances are disturbingly high that another few degrees in warming should make the connection inescapably clear. Writing on ambiguity is not easy, but Black wades into anyway, and usesit to sketch a growing move to separate the need for adaptation – one that is undeniable – from the smart corollary of greenhouse gas mediation. Investment in readiness for bad weather makes sense no matter what, with the vulnerability of growing population a prime reason. But crediting humanity’s collective behavior for it, and assigning liability and responsibility to change that behavior, is harder to do. For now.
- Charlie Petit